朝核試驗帶來的威脅與東亞區域安全的前景(3 / 3)

[14] 有關印巴核試驗給朝鮮的核武器計劃帶來的影響分析,請參見Derek D。 Smith, Deterring America: Rogue States and the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006, Ch。 4.

[15] Leon V。 Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998; Selig S。 Harrison, Korean Endgame: A Strategy for reunification and U。 S。 Disengagement, New York: A Century Foundation Book, 2002.

[16] 有些西方媒體將朝鮮核試驗視為中國缺乏對朝鮮“影響力”的表現。但更合理的解釋應該是平壤政權的“特殊性質”,使得他們對核武器的重視超越對朝中關係的認識。請參見Jonathan Pollack, \"North Korea's Nuclear Test: the Shock Waves Continue\", IISS Strategic Comments, Vol。 12, Issue 11, November 2006.

[17] Benjamin Kang Lim, \"Exclusive—N。 Korea Generals Want Early Nuclear Test-Source\", Reuters, October 8, 2006; at www。msnbc。msn。/id/15177667/print/l/displaymode/1098/

[18] Donald Kirk, \"Pyongyang Plays from Position of Strength\", Asia Times, August 29, 2006.

[19] George Wehrfritz, \"North Korea Joins the Nuclear Club and Sets off A Global Diplomatic Crisis\", Newsweek, October 9, 2006. at www。Msnbc。msn。cm/id/15191391/site/newsweek/print/l/display。

[20] 正是在這個意義上,中國外交部在2006年10月9日發表聲明,指責朝鮮不顧國際社會的嚴正反對立場,“悍然”進行核試驗。載《人民日報》, 2006-10-10.

[21] 連續製造的危機事件是危機事態中最嚴峻的問題,它證明朝鮮已經不是簡單地通過危機氣氛和緊張來引起國際社會的重視,而是想要利用連續的危機事件和核武器成為朝鮮外交的一部分。有關核武器與核試驗在外交中的作用,請參見McGeorge Bundy, \"The Unimpressive Record of Atomic Diplomacy\", in Robert J。 Art and Robert Jervis, eds。,International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues, New York: Harper Collins College Publishers, 1996, pp。 227-235.

[22] 核試驗已經讓朝鮮成為了世界上大規模殺傷性武器擴散最“齊全”的國家之一。西方的研究認為,朝鮮擁有化學、生物、導彈武器,再加上核武器,這“四項”平壤都占全了。請參見Joseph Cirincione, Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction, Washington, D。 C。: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002, pp。 241-254.

[23] Alissa J。 Rubin, \"A New Global Nuclear Order\", Los Angeles Times, October 15, 2006.

[24] 維護國際核不擴散製度的穩定是冷戰後國際安全的重要組成部分。如果朝鮮為了自己的安全與生存,根本拒絕與聯合國安理會及聯合國原子能機構等國際組織合作,將從根本上動搖國際核不擴散製度的基礎。有關核不擴散與國際軌製和國際製度的重要性,請參見AlexanderT。 J。 Lennon, Contemporary Nuclear Debates: Missile Defense, Arms Control, and Arms Race in the Twenty-First Century, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2002; Janne E。 Nolan, Bernald I。 Finel, and Brian D。 Finlay, eds。, Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction: Ultimate Security, New York: The Century Foundation Press, 2003; Bates Gill, etc。, Tipping Points: Last Weapon Revisited, Washington, D。。 C。: the Brooking Institution Press, 2003.

[25] Anna Fifield, \"Top Seoul Official to Resign After Nuclear Test\", Financial Times, October 26, 2006.

[26] Evan Ramstad, \"Roh Is Set to Rebuild Seoul's Security Team\", The Wall Street Journal, October 26, 2006.

[27] 這項計劃雖然從表麵上來看是韓國對朝鮮2006年7月洪水災害的援助,實際上卻是首爾近年來宣布的最大規模的對朝援助計劃。其中,10萬噸大米的援助以及災後重建的建設設施與裝備的援助,都是目前朝鮮最為匱乏的物資之一。

[28] \"Bush Sticks to Hard Line on North Korea: Roh Leaves Open Prospect of Summit With Kim Jong Il\", CNN News, November 17, 2005.

[29] 朝鮮核試驗之後對盧武鉉政府的“和平繁榮政策”的批評意見認為,正是這一政策助長了朝鮮獲得核武器的能力。請參見Editorial, \"Engagement? What Engagement?\" Chosun Ilbo, October 20, 2006.

[30] Young Whan Kihl, \"Security on the Korean Peninsula: Continuity and Change\", Security Dialogue, Vol。 33, No。 1, 2006, pp。 59-72.

[31]《陳水扁:盼日美台形成三方對話機製》,鳳凰衛視網站,2006-10-31.

[32] Condoleezza Rice, \"U。 S。 Foreign Policy in the Northeast Asia\", Heritage Foundation, October 30, 2006, at http: //www。heritage。org/Research/AsiaandthePacific/bcleell。cfm/

[33] William Branigin, \"N。 Korea Says U。 N。 Sanctions Are 'Declaration of War\"', Washington Post, October 17, 2006.

[34] Michael E。 O'Hanlon, \"North Korea: WorldMust Present United Front\", The Baltimore Sun, October 10, 2006.

[35] Steve Fetter and Devin T。 Hagerty, \"Nuclear Deterrence and the 1990 Indo-Pakistani Crisis\", International Security, Vol。 21, No。 1 (Summer 1996) , pp。 176-185.

[36] 有關這方麵的研究,請參見James G。 Blight and David A。 Welch, \"Risking 'The Destruction of Nations,: Lessons of Cuban Missile For New and Aspiring Nuclear States\", Security Studies, Vol。 4, No。 4 (Summer 1995) , pp。 811-850; Scott D。 Sagan, \"ThePerils of Proliferation: Organization Theory, Deterrence Theory, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons\", International Security, Vol。 18, No。 4 (Spring 1994), pp。 74-96; Devin T。 Hagerty, \"Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia: The 1990 Indo-Pakistani Crisis\", International Security, Vol。 20, No。 3(Winter 1995—1996) , pp。 65-86.

[37] 有關韓國政府在PSI問題上的立場,請參見Nam Man-kwon, \"Prospects of Inter-Korean Military Tension Reduction and the ROK Approach\", Korea and World Affairs, Vol。 28, No。 3 (Fall 2004) , pp。 249-264; Cheon Seongwhun, \"North Korea Nuclear Crisis: Current Status and Past Lesson\", Korea and World Affairs, Vol。 29, No。 3 (Fall 2005) , pp。 341-358.

[38] AP, \"S。 Korea Moves to Enforce U。 N。 Sanctions against the North: Seoul will Ban Some Officials and Curb Financial Dealings\", Las Angeles Times , October 27, 2006.

[39] Kenneth N。 Waltz, \"Nuclear Myths and Political Realities\", American Political Science Review, Vol。 84, No。 3 Winter 1990, pp。 731-745.

[40] Michiyo Nakamoto, \"Tokyo Plans to Speed up Anti-Missile Programme\", Financial Times, October 26, 2006.

[41] Michael J。 Green, \"Japan Is Back: Why Tokyo's New Assertiveness Is Good for Washington?\" Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007.

[42] Isabel Reynolds, \"Japan, Australia to Sign Defense Pact in Tokyo\", AP, March 13, 2007.

[43] Brendan Taylor, \"The Australia-Japan Security Agreement: Between a Rock and a Hard Place\", PacNet Newsletter, March 19, 2007.

[44]《中川昭一言論引起亞洲及歐美國家密切關注》,《環球時報》, 2006-10-17.

[45]《麻生稱日本應公開討論是否擁有核武器》,中國新聞網,2006-10-18; www。sina。。cn/w/2006-10-18/144311271337.shtl/

[46] Mari Yamaguchi, \"Japan Envoy Says Nuke Talks Possible\", AP, November 30, 2006.

[47] 北岡伸一:《北の核を抑製するための五っの選擇肢》,載《中央公論》, 33—43頁,2006(12)。

[48] 川上高司:《“封印”された:日本核武裝論を解き放て》,載《世界周報》, 6—10頁,2007-01-16.

[49] 荻原遼:《中國の屬國化すぅ北朝鮮》,載《正論》, 74—83頁,2006(12) 。

[50] Anatoly Koshkin, \"Japan and the Atomic Bomb\", Russian News and Information Agency: Novosti, December 27, 2006.