六方會談的“製度建設”與東北亞多邊安全機製(3 / 3)

[12] 對六方會談三大任務的概括,請參見譚晶晶、白潔:《要找到利益結合點——武大偉話六方會談》,新華網,2007-03-10.

[13] James L。 Schoff, \"Make the Working Groups Work\", CSIS Pacific Forum: PacNet Newsletter 10, February 27, 2007.

[14] 有關各國在六方會談中競爭性的目標與利益考慮,請參見David Kerr, \"The Sino-Russian Partnership and U。S。 Policy Toward North Korea: From Hegemony to Concert in Northeast Asia\", International Studies Quarterly, Volume 49, Issue 3(2005) , pp。 411-438; David Shambaugh, \"China and the Korean Peninsula: Playing for the Long Term\", The Washington Quarterly, Vol。 26, No。 2 (Spring 2003) , pp。 43-56; Victor Cha and David C。 Kang, \"The Korea Crisis\", Foreign Policy, May/June 2003, pp。 20-27; ZhuFeng, \"China's Policy on the North Korea Nuclear Issue\", China Strategy, Vol。 3 (Washington, DC: Center For strategic and International studies, July 20, 2004) , pp。 5-10;有關各國在朝鮮問題上不同的戰略選擇,請參見Samuel S。 Kim and TaiHwan Lee, eds。, North Korea and Northeast Asia,, Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2002; Jonathan D。 Pollack, ed。,Korea: The East Asian Pivot, Newport: Naval War College, 2006.

[15] 朱鋒:《六方會談:朝核問題還是朝鮮問題》,載《國際政治研究》, 23—31頁,2005(2) 。

[16] Lion V。 Sigal, Disarming Strangers: Nuclear Diplomacy with North Korea, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998.

[17] Jonathan D。 Pollack, \"The United States, North Korea, and the End of Agreed Framework\", Naval War College Review, Vol。 4, No。 3 (Summer 2003) , pp。 1-34.

[18] Jungmin Kang and Peter Hayes, \"Technical Analysis of the DPRK Nuclear Test\", Nautilus Institute Policy Forum, 06-89A, October 2006; Richard Garwin and Frank N。 von Hippel, \"A Technical Analysis: Deconstructing North Korea's October 9 Nuclear Test\", Arms Control Today , November 2006, pp。 14-16.

[19] Michael Swaine, Randall Schriver, Allen Romberg, \"Next Steps on North Korea: Options Beyond Sanctions\", Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 12, 2006.

[20] 希爾表示朝鮮已有的鈈會在第一階段凍核行動中處理,中新網,2007-03-01.

[21] David Albright and Paul Bannan, \"The North Korean Plutonium Stock Mid 2006\", Institute for Science and International Security , 2006; www。isis-online。org/publications/dprk/dprkplutonium。pdf/

[22] Geoffrey Kemp, \"Nuclear forcesfor Medium Powers, Part I: Targets and Weapons System\", Adelphi Paper 106, 1974.

[23] 有關對朝鮮核彈投擲技術能力方麵的各種製約因素的分析和對其現有能力的評估,請參見IISS,\"North Korea's Weapons Programmes: A Net Assessment\", London: IISS, January 21, 2006. www。iiss。org/pulications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier

[24] Victor D。 Cha, \"North Korea's Weapons of Mass Destruction: Badges, Shields, or Swords?\" Political Science Quarterly , Vol。 117, No。 2 (2002) , pp。 209-230.

[25] Jonathan D。 Pollack, \"North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program to 2015: Three Scenariosw, Asia Policy, No。 3 (January 2007), pp。 105-123.

[26] Robert Carlin and John W。 Lewis, \"What North Korea Really Wants\", Washington Post, January 27, 2007.

[27] Bennett Ramberg, \"Why North Korea Loves the Bomb\", Los Angeles Times, November 1, 2006; Editorial, \"Faith-Based Nonproliferation: We'll Believe it When Kim Jong II Hands over His Plutonium\", The Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2007. Editorial, \"The Lesson of North Korea\", New York Times, February 14, 2007.

[28] Avery Goldstein, Deterrence and Security in the 21~(st) Century: China, Britain, France, and the Enduring Legacy of the Nuclear Revolution , Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2000; Ivo H。 Daalder, \"What Vision for the Nuclear Future?\" The Washington Quarterly, Vol。 18, No。 2 (Spring 1995) , pp。 127-142;

[29] Statement of the DPRK ForeignMinistry, Korean Central Broadcasting Station and Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) , October 3, 2006.

[30] Spokesman Statement of the DPRK Foreign Ministry, Korean Central Broadcasting Station, October 17, 2006.

[31] Jonathan D。 Pollack, \"North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program to 2015: Three Scenarios\", p。 112.

[32] Statement of the DPRK ForeignMinistry, Korean Central Broadcasting Station and Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), October 3, 2006.

[33] Peter Hayes, \"The Stalker State: North Korean Proliferation and the End of American Nuclear Hegemony\", Nautilus Institute Policy Forum, 06-82A, October 4, 2006.

[34] 有關對中國“核威懾戰略”的介紹,請參見Alastair Iain Johnston, \"China's New 'Old Thinking,': The Concept of Limited Deterrence\", International Security, Vol。 20, No。 3 (Winter 1995\\96) , pp。 5-42.

[35] 有關布什政府對朝政策的戰略構想,請參見Victor D。 Cha, \"Hawk Engagement and Preventive Dfense on the Korean Peninsula\", International Security, Vol。 27, No。 1 (Summer 2002) , pp。 40-78; Victor D。 Cha, \"Korea's Place in the Axis\", Foreign Affairs, Vol。 81, Iss。 3 (May/June 2002) , pp。 17-29.

[36] Michael O'Hanlon, \"A Master Plan to Deal With N。 Korea\", Washington, DC。 : The Brookings Institution Policy Brief 14, January 2003; Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki, \"Toward a Grand Bargaining with North Korea\", The Washington Quarterly, Vol。 26, No。 2 (Autumn 2003) , pp。 2-12.

[37] 對“大談判”的擴大解釋,請參見Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula : How to Deal With A Nuclear North Korea , Washington, DC: A Brookings Institution Book, 2003.

[38] Edith M。 Lederer, \"U。S。, N。 Korea Optimistic after Talks\", AP, March 6, 2007.

[39] Mark Mazzetti, \"Latest Reports on Iran and North Korea Show a Newfound Caution Among Analyst\", New York Times, March 2, 2007.

[40] David E。 Sanger, \"U。 S。 to Offer North Korea Face-Saving Nuclear Plan\", New York Times, March 5, 2007.

[41] 對朝鮮外交這一特點的分析,請參見Jonathan D。 Pollack, ed。, Korea: The East Asian Pivot; Samuel S。 Kim and TaiHwan Lee, eds。 , North Korea and Northeast Asia。

[42] \"China Warns Distrust Tests N。 Korea Nuclear Talks\", Yahoo News, March 9, 2007. http://news。yahoo。/s/nm/20070309/wl_nm/korea_north_china_dc_l&-pr—

[43] J。 Michael McConnell, \"Annual Threat Assessment of Director of National Intelligence for the Senate Arms Service Committee\", Statement in the Hearing of Senate Arms Service Committee, February 27, 2007. www。dni/testimonies/20070227_testimony。pdf

[44] Harumi Ozawa, \"Japan Accuses N。 Korea of Isolation Tactics\", AP, March 9, 2007.

[45] P。 Parameswaran, \"Japan Impasse Casts Shadow on US Bid to End Korean Nuclear Crisis\", Yahoo News, March 9, 2007. http://news。yahoo。/s/afp/20070310/pl_afp/nkoreausjapapnnuclearwea——

[46] James E。 Goodby, \"Don't Expect Miracles in North Korea Deal\", OhmyNews International, February 20, 2007.

[47] Richard Lloyd-Parry, \"Comment: Caution Required after North Korea Breakthrough\", Times, February 14, 2007; Editorial, \"North Korea Comes in From the Cold\", Christian Science Monitor, February 14, 2007; Editorial, \"Nuclear Bargaining\", Washington Post, February 14, 2007.

[48] Nicholas Eberstadt, \"The Persistence of North Korea\", Policy Review, No。 127 (2004), p。 22.

[49] Warren Hoge。 \"U。 S。 Presses North Korea over Uranium\", New York Times, March 7, 2007.