事實上,投資者對市場的認識直接影響著自己的投資策略。如果投資者認同市場有效理論,認為市場上的股票價格是對全部上市公司相關信息的真實反映,那麼投資者就會認為對上市公司真實情況的分析研究是沒有必要的,因為股價已經完全反映出了真實信息,此時隻要進行技術層麵的分析,采取“追漲殺跌”的簡單手法,就能做出正確的投資決策。如果投資者認同市場無效理論,那麼他就不會被市場的價格變化所動搖,也不會糾結於繁瑣的技術分析,而是致力於分析上市公司的內在價值,堅持在其股票價格低於其價值時購入、價格高於其價值時賣出的原則。
巴菲特名言
由於股票價格的起伏與發行股票的企業的運營狀況密切相關,因此投資者應當把握住企業的發展趨勢,冷靜地看待股票在市場中的價格浮動現象,不要一買股票就期盼它馬上上漲。隻有這樣,投資者才能在變化無常的股票市場中始終保持著自己的投資方向,不被市場變化的表象所左右。
——巴菲特
尋找到一家真正有價值的上市公司,必須依靠我們長期的分析和研究。
——巴菲特
2.善用套利的方法
Although our management is the best, we still need to be wise to the acquisition of large enterprises, so that the revenue growth of our business in line with our expectations. On this point, until late 2007, only made a little progress. It was on Christmas, Charlie and I signed up the largest cash acquisition in the history of Berkshire, and eventually earn a year"s salary for ourselves.
This transaction seeds sown in 1954, that summer, just to get a new job only three months, I was sent on my boss, Ben Graham and Jerry Newman the Rockwood Chocolate Company in Brooklyn shareholders meeting. A young man, just control of the company this household cocoa beans as raw material to produce a variety of products. He invented a unique "tokens", 80 pounds of cocoa beans per share of the the Rockwood company"s stock bid. I described in a 1988 letter to shareholders through this transaction, and also explained the arbitrage opportunity. I want to tell you Jay Pritzker, is the young man mentioned above — a hiding that saving the tax idea behind the commercial genius. This feasible way to escape the eyes of the other want to buy Rockwood stock experts, including my boss, Ben and Jerry.
——摘自2007年巴菲特寫給全體股東的年報
譯文
雖然我們的管理層是最好的,但我們依然需要進行明智的大型企業並購活動,從而讓我們的業務增長速度和我們的期望值相符合。關於這一點,在2007年年底,取得的進展非常小。我清楚地記得那是在聖誕節,查理和我成功地簽訂了一份伯克希爾公司曆史上最具規模的現金收購,由此我們掙到了當年的薪水。