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2007年3月,我給山姆發去一份郵件,對他說,至今,美國乃至世界卻是依然看不懂中國。我給他推薦了一篇美國《新聞周刊》上發表的文章:《中國的天沒有坍塌》。

The Sky Isn't Falling in China

The day after the Shanghai stock market fell,we saw again all the same warnings about the Chinese system and the odds of its collapse.

By Fareed Zakaria Newsweek

March 12,2007 issue——For some years economists and analysts have been wondering what it would take to scare financial markets. Wars,coups,soaring commodity prices,increased energy costs,unwinding housing markets—nothing seemed to do it。Last week we got one answer:China。The sharp plunge in the Shanghai stock market caused jitters around the world。But while the reaction pointed to the increased importance of China in global economics,it also highlighted the confusion and misunderstanding that surround the Middle Kingdom……

It might be time to admit that we really don't understand China。 The country simply does not conform to our most basic beliefs about what makes nations grow。Hernando de Soto,the Peruvian scholar,has argued persuasively that clear and strong property rights are the prerequisite for economic growth。Except that China,the fastest-growing country in human history,has an extremely unclear and weak system of property rights。Alan Greenspan has argued that the rule of law is the linchpin of market economics。Except that China has a patchy set of laws,unevenly enforced。The Washington Consensus that the World Bank and the IMF have peddled across the globe claims that if currencies don't float freely,they will produce huge distortions in the economy。China has declined that advice and yet prospers。So,instead of learning from facts and revising theory,we assume that the facts are wrong,that China is one grand charade……