正文 宏觀審慎視角下銀行監管研究評述(3 / 3)

本文通過梳理如何對銀行業係統性風險進行有效監管的相關研究成果,發現在宏觀審慎視角下加強對係統性風險的管理是目前防範與化解係統性風險的必要途徑,其基本方法是構建宏觀審慎管理體係,通過宏觀審慎分析對銀行業係統性風險進行有效測度,同時配合宏觀審慎管理工具及相關政策的相互協調,是防範與化解係統性風險的有效手段。

但目前在政策協調方麵存在諸多困難,主要原因在於不同政策由不同部門製定與實施,而不同政策目標又不盡相同,因而要使不同的政策達到共同的目標變得非常因難。如我國貨幣政策的主要目標是保持經濟增長,而金融監管政策的主要目標是確保金融係統穩定,這兩個目標在當前宏觀經濟不斷下行的情況下存在明確的衝突。一方麵由於宏觀經濟不斷下行,央行不得不實行降準備金率乃至降息、放鬆房地產政策等刺激經濟的政策,但這些政策必將進一步刺激房地產行業,使本來就有較大泡沫的房地產市場泡沫進一步加大,從而進一步增加銀行業的風險;另一方麵近兩年來金融監管當局不斷出台政策抑製房地產行業、政府平台、產能過剩行業的監管政策,這些政策也產生了一定的效果;同時,政府近期為刺激經濟增長,又加大了對基礎設施投資的審批力度。這些不同政策在當前宏觀經濟情況下目標間存在較大衝突,使政府既要實現保持經濟穩定,又要實現“牢牢守住不發生係統性、區域性金融風險底線”的目標存在較大困難。因此,越是在宏觀經濟不景氣,金融行業風險較高的情況下,政府的相關政策一定要相互協調,否則不但不能實現既定的目標,還會使整個宏觀經濟及金融體係的風險增大。

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