參考文獻
第1章
事實半衰期
1. Martin, Aryn. “Can’t Any Body Count? Counting as an Epistemic Theme in the History of Human Chromosomes.” Social Studies of Science 34, no. 6 (December 1, 2004): 923–48; Tjio, Joe Hin and Albert Levan. “The Chromosome Number of Man.” Hereditas 42, no. 1– 2(1956): 1– 6.
2. Gartler, Stanley M.“The Chromosome Number in Humans: A Brief History.”Nature Reviews Genetics 7, no. 8 (August 2006): 655– 60.
3. 科學哲學家無疑會認為，我對事實和知識的定義有別於基本真理，且過於簡單。然而，我必須聲明一下，我並不是把它們與一些客觀的科學真理分隔開來，我隻是說它們正在接近這個真理。另外，我堅信，這樣的科學真理是客觀存在的，不依人的主觀意誌為轉移。而且我對一步步接近客觀真理持樂觀態度。但是，隨著討論的進一步深入，許多不同類型的知識在以相似的方式改變，因此把所有的事實視為一體是一項強大的研究方法。
4. 一則事實以及它的改變最終還是和人有關：我們從他人那裏了解事實；我們選定希望探索的領域，然後有所發現；有時事實隻是因為其他人才成立。所以讓我們把知識的變化分為四類：
a）一個社會對世界的認知更新。
b）世界自身的真實改變。
c）個人的認知更新。
d）一個小群體的認知更新。
例如，對人類染色體數目的修正屬於第一類。地球上有多少億人，世界上最強大的計算機是哪一個，則屬於第二類。第三類是指我們對第一類和第二類變化的認識，有時它存在幾年或幾十年的延遲，雷龍存在（或不存在）就屬於這一類。第四類是指在信息傳播的過程中一群人如何應對這些信息，比如說我們可能通過小道消息聽說新的東西。當然，這四類變化的界限沒有那麼明確，它們之間往往有交集。例如，雷龍既屬於第一類也屬於第三類，甚至還能算第四類（古生物學家的群體比一般民眾的改變快）。世界上黑死病尚存的地區涉及了第二類和第四類。另外，我驚訝地發現，2011年底地球上的人口將達到70億，這是第二類和第三類相結合。
5. 中央事實組成了所謂的無形當下：我們每個人都能感受到變化——泛紅的天空帶著點點黎明的新光，暴雨時節漸豐的湖水，季節更迭、溫度和雨水影響我們的植被景觀。我們中的一些人還看到了長期的事情，他們記得去年冬天雪更少，或者好幾年前魚更多。但是如果一個人感覺到在過去的幾十年裏發生的每一個精確變化，那就很不尋常。這麼長的一段時間，我們傾向於認為世界是靜止的，而且我們通常會低估變化的實際程度。這是因為我們不能直接感知緩慢的變化，也因為我們解釋因果關係的能力有限，這些因果關係都隱藏在我所謂的“無形當下”。（Magnuson, John J. “Long-term Ecological Research and the Invisible Present.”Bioscience 40 [1990]: 495– 501.）
第2章
發現的步伐
1. Garfield, Eugene.“A Tribute to Derek John de Solla Price: A Bold, Iconoclastic Historian of Science.” In Essays of an Information Scientist, ISI Press. Vol. 7, p. 213.
2. Price, Derek J. de Solla. “Quantitative Measures of the Development of Science.” Archives Internationales d’Histoire des Sciences 4, no. 14 (1951): 85– 93.
3. Price, Derek J. de Solla. Little Science, Big Science—and Beyond. New York: Columbia University Press, 1986.
4. Lehman, Harvey C. “The Exponential Increase of Man’s Cultural Output.” Social Forces 25, no. 3 (March 1, 1947): 281– 90.
5. Enquist, M., et al. “Why Does Human Culture Increase Exponentially?” Theoretical Population Biology 74 (2008): 46–55.
6. Lee, Kyungjoon, John S. Brownstein, Richard G. Mills, and Isaac S. Kohane. “Does Collocation Inform the Impact of Collaboration?” PLoS ONE 5, no. 12 (December 15, 2010): e14279.
7. Wuchty, Stefan, et al. “The Increasing Dominance of Teams in Production of Knowledge.” Science 316, no. 5827 (May 18, 2007): 1036– 39.
8. Hirsch, Jorge E. “An Index to Quantify an Individual’s Scientific Research Output.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102 , no. 46 (November 15, 2005): 16569–72.
9. Lehrer, Jonah. “Fleeting Youth, Fading Creativity.” Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2010.
10. Zuckerman, Harriet. “Nobel Laureates in Science: Patterns of Productivity, Collaboration, and Authorship.” American Sociological Review 32, no. 3 (1967): 391– 403.
11. 項目名為reCAPTCHA，詳見www. google. com/ recaptcha.
12. Arbesman, Samuel, and Nicholas A. Christakis. “Eurekometrics: Analyzing the Nature of Discovery.” PLoS Computational Biology 7, no. 6 （June 2011）: e1002072.
13. Cowen, Tyler. “The Great Stagnation in Medicine.” Marginal Revolution, 2011. www. marginalrevolution. com/ marginalrevolution/ 2011/ 02/ the-great-stagnation-in-medicine. html.
14. Carney, J. Aidan. “The Glandulae Parathyroideae of Ivar Sandstr?m: Contributions from Two Continents.” American Journal of Surgical Pathology 20, no. 9 (1996): 1123– 44.
15. Price. Little Science, Big Science.
第3章
真相的漸近線
1. Goodall, Jane, Gail Hudson, and Thane Maynard. Hope for Animals and Their World: How Endangered Species Are Being Rescued from the Brink. New York: Grand Central Publishing, 2009.
2. 有趣的是，自從活的腔棘魚被發現以後，6 500萬年來的腔棘魚化石相繼出現。這是我與Brian Switek私下交流後得知的。
3. Fisher, Diana O., and Simon P. Blomberg. “Correlates of Rediscovery and the Detectability of Extinction in Mammals.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (September 29, 2010).
4. Poynard, Thierry, et al. “Truth Survival in Clinical Research: An Evidence-Based Requiem?” Annals of Internal Medicine 136, no. 12 (2002): 888– 95.
5. 此衰減呈相對平穩的線性，所以我們可能需要添上更多年的數據才能得出指數衰減。
6. 有時基礎出版物正因為重要所以實際上已經停止引用了。牛頓的研究成果對基礎物理學影響深遠，所以人們已不必再引用他的書名。
7. Redner, Sidney. “Citation Statistics from More Than a Century of Physical Review” (2004). http:// arxiv. org/ abs/ physics/ 0407137.
8. Midorikawa, N. “Citation Analysis of Physics Journals: Comparison of Subfields of Physics.” Scientometrics 5, no. 6 (November 26, 1983): 361– 74.
9. Tonta, Yas?ar, and Yurdagül ünal. “Scatter of Journals and Literature Obsolescence Refl ected in Document Delivery Requests.” Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology 56, no. 1 (2005): 84– 94; doi:10. 1002/ asi. 20114.
10. Price, Derek J. de Solla. “Citation Measures of Hard Science, Soft Science, Technology, and Nonscience.” In Communication Among Scientists and Engineers, eds. C. E. Nelson and D. K. Pollock. Lexington, MA: Heath, 1970. pp. 3– 22.
11. Tang, Rong. “Citation Characteristics and Intellectual Acceptance of Scholarly Monographs.” College Research Libraries 69, no. 4 (2008): 356– 69.
12. Ho, C. Y., R. W. Powell, and P. E. Liley. “Thermal Conductivity of the Elements.” Journal of Physical and Chemical Reference Data 1, no. 2 (April 1972): 279– 421.
13. Asimov, Isaac. “The Relativity of Wrong.” The Skeptical Inquirer 14, no. 1 (1989): 35– 44.
14. Carroll, Sean. “The Laws Underlying the Physics of Everyday Life Are Completely Understood.” Cosmic Variance, 2010; http:// blogs .discovermagazine. com/ cosmicvariance/ 2010/ 09/ 23/ the-laws-underlying-the-physics-of- everyday-life-are-completely -understood.
15. 又稱狄拉克方程。Carroll, Sean. “Physics and the Immor -tality of the Soul.” Cosmic Variance, 2010; http:// blogs. Discover magazine. com/ cosmicvariance/ 2011/ 05/ 23/ physics-and- the immortality-of- the- soul/.
16. Census of Marine Life. “Giant Undersea Microbial Mat Among Discoveries Revealed by Marine Life Census.” Science Daily, April 18, 2010.
17. Kelly, Kevin. “The Long Tail of Life.” The Technium, 2010; http:// www. kk. org/ thetechnium/ archives/ 2010/ 04/ the_ long_ tail_ o. php.
第4章
萬事萬物的摩爾定律
1. Rawsthorn, Alice. “Why @ Is Held in Such High Design Esteem.” International Herald Tribune, March 22, 2010.
2. Moore, Gordon E. “Cramming More Components Onto Integrated Circuits” (Reprinted from Electronics, pg 114–17, April 19, 1965). Proceedings of the IEEE 86, no. 1 (1998): 82– 85.
3. Myhrvold, Nathan. “Moore’s Law Corollary: Pixel Power.” New York Times, June 7, 2006.
4. Koh, Heebyung, and Christopher L. Magee. “A Functional Approach for Studying Technological Progress: Application to Information Technology.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73, no. 9 (2006): 1061– 83; Koh, Heebyung, and Christopher L. Magee. “A Functional Approach for Studying Technological Progress: Extension to Energy Technology.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 6 (2008): 735– 58.
5. 假定這種增長模式下，營養物質會源源不斷地供應。
6. Christensen, Clayton M. “Exploring the Limits of the Technology S-Curve. Part I: Component Technologies.” Production and Operations Management 1, no. 4 (1992): 334– 57.
7. 最近的研究還未達成共識，它們到底是指數函數還是其他類型的快速增長函數，如冪律或二重指數。但結果是一樣的：都符合特定規律。請見McNerney, James, et al. “Role of Design Complexity in Technology Improvement.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 22 (May 31, 2011): 9008– 13; Nagy, Béla, et al. “Superexponential Long- term Trends in Information Technology.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78, no. 8 (October 2011): 1356– 64. 更多性能曲線請見數據庫：http:// pcdb. santafe. edu.
8. Powell, Corey S. “The Rise of the Machines Is Not Going as We Expected.” Discover (May 2010).
9. Kelly, Kevin. What Technology Wants. New York: Viking, 2010.
10. 個人研究。數據取自Bureau International des Poids et Mesures. The International System of Units, 2006.
11. MacArthur, Daniel. “The Plummeting Cost of Genome Sequencing.” Wired Science, 2011. http:// www. wired. com/ wiredscience/ 2011/ 02/ illustrating - the - plummeting- cost-of- genome- sequencing.
12. 數學領域也有這樣的倍增。例如，由於計算能力的增長，已知的最大的素數的位數呈指數增長。進多信息請訪問：http:// primes. utm. edu/ notes/ by_ year. html.
13. Cox, Jürgen, and Matthias Mann. “Is Proteomics the New Genomics?” Cell. Cell Press, August 10, 2007. http:// linkinghub. elsevier. com/ retrieve/ pii/ S0092867407009701.
14. Stevenson, Ian H., and Konrad P. Kording. “How Advances in Neural Recording Affect Data Analysis.” Nature Neuroscience 14, no. 2 (February 2011): 139– 42.
15. Cole, Jonathan R. The Great American University: Its Rise to Preeminence, Its Indispensable National Role, Why It Must Be Protected. New York: Public Affairs, 2009.
16. Petroski, Henry. “Engineering Is Not Science.” IEEE Spectrum 9 December 2010.
17. Yensen, T. D. “What Is the Magnetic Permeability of Iron?” Journal of the Franklin Institute 206, no. 4 (1928): 503– 10.
18. Cirasella, J. and D. Kopec. “The History of Computer Games.” Exhibit at Dartmouth Artificial Intelligence Conference: The Next Fifty Years (AI@50). Conferences, Seminars and Symposiums: Conference Presentation. Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, July 13– 15, 2006.
19. 不幸的是，發達國家根除脊髓灰質炎仍是一個中央事實。由於世界全球化，脊髓灰質炎仍有可能卷土重來，從發展中國家傳播到發達國家。
20. Kotler, Steven, and Peter H. Diamandis. Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think. New York: Free Press, 2012.
21. Wolfram|Alpha. “Life Expectancy, United States” ; http:// www. wolframalpha. com/ input/? i= life+ expectancy + United+ States, 2011.
22. Grey, Aubrey D. N. J. de. “Escape Velocity: Why the Prospect of Extreme Human Life Extension Matters Now.” PLoS Biol 2, no. 6 (June 15, 2004): e187. Further reading: Finch, Caleb E., and Eileen M. Crimmins. “Inflammatory Exposure and Historical Changes in Human Life- Spans.” Science 305, no. 5691 (September 17, 2004): 1736– 39.
23. Murphy, Tom. “ Galactic-Scale Energy.” Do the Math, 2011. http:// physics. ucsd. edu/ do-the- math/ 2011/ 07/ galactic- scale- energy.
24. Kelly. What Technology Wants.
25. McCarney, Rob, et al. “The Hawthorne Effect: A Randomised, Controlled Trial.” BMC Medical Research Methodology 7, no. 1 (2007): 30.
26. Henrich, Joseph. “Demography and Cultural Evolution: How Adaptive Cultural Processes Can Produce Maladaptive Losses: The Tasmanian Case.” American Antiquity 69, no. 2 (April 1, 2004): 197– 214.
27. Caplan, Bryan. http:// econlog. econlib . org/ archives/ 2011/ 05/ replies_ to_ crit. html. 2011.
28. Kremer, Michael. “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B. C. to 1990.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, no. 3 (August 1, 1993): 681– 716.